Three weeks into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, US oil prices remain highly unstable, with fresh volatility expected on Monday. Energy analyst Patrick De Haan has projected that gasoline could reach $3.85 per gallon at US pumps, with $4 fuel still very much in play. The unresolved conflict continues to undermine global energy stability in ways that are being felt directly at the pump.
On February 28, when US and Israeli forces launched their first strikes on Iran, gasoline was priced below $3 per gallon nationally. The three weeks since have seen that figure climb 23% to $3.70, as oil supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty have pushed prices higher. Market analysts describe the current environment as one of the most volatile for energy prices in recent years.
Friday’s targeted strikes on Kharg Island, the hub of much of Iran’s oil export capacity, intensified global supply concerns. Simultaneously, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has denied global markets access to roughly one-fifth of their usual oil supply. Brent crude hovered between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude was trading near $94 after briefly approaching $100.
The price spike has been felt most acutely in California, where some consumers are paying over $8 per gallon at select Los Angeles filling stations, with the statewide average above $5. Nationwide, diesel prices for commercial transport could climb to $5.15 per gallon. Senior executives from Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco have personally briefed White House staff on the deepening supply crisis, with Exxon chief Darren Woods highlighting the threat from speculative trading.
Stock markets opened with mild optimism Monday after oil prices showed signs of cooling, pushing the S&P 500 up approximately 1%. Yet seasoned investors remain cautious, given the unpredictable nature of the conflict. Major oil company shares have hit historic highs since the war began, even as US households face growing financial pressure from rising fuel costs.