A recent analysis from the tourism intelligence platform DataGreat explores the potential impact on Turkish tourism amid rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The scenario analysis, conducted by DataGreat founder Alper Tekin using the platform’s Crisis Impact Simulator, leverages data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. With tourism as Turkey’s third-largest export sector, contributing over 11% to the national GDP and supporting around three million jobs, the stakes are significant.
Turkey’s geographical proximity to the conflict zone is notable, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis. DataGreat’s simulator is designed to apply deterministic scenarios to existing datasets, using AI to generate narratives while ensuring all numerical data is sourced accurately, a feature Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.”
The analysis outlines three potential scenarios. Scenario A considers regional escalation resulting in airspace disruptions, sanctions, or route changes by insurers, potentially affecting European leisure travel to Turkey. Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands might delay rather than cancel trips, while business travel from the EU shows more resilience. Scenario B models a significant decline in Russian visitors, Turkey’s largest tourism market, due to further sanctions, currency issues, and payment barriers, with the Antalya and Muğla coastal areas most at risk. Scenario C examines the potential effects of Turkish lira volatility, with a possible short-term increase in dollar-denominated tourism receipts as Turkey becomes a cheaper destination, though domestic leisure spending might suffer.
Tekin emphasizes that the simulator functions as a planning tool rather than a predictive forecast, allowing tourism stakeholders to prepare for potential crises rather than reacting post-event. The simulator’s detailed outputs, including segment vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies, are available to the media upon request. These insights are complemented by DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which assesses tourism risks across 42 countries weekly.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Turkey, is built on the comprehensive WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. The platform’s suite of tools includes the Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, providing valuable resources for managing tourism risks and opportunities.